ORCHARD PARK – The forecasting models are showing that Sunday night, the fabulous fall we have enjoyed in Western New York could be coming to an end, just in time for the Buffalo Bills to host the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium.
The prognosticators are calling it a “significant lake effect event” and while it’s almost a certainty that regions south of Orchard Park are going to get hammered as they often do, the question about how much snow will fall at the stadium is a little sketchy.
And of course BillsMafia will be rooting for that “significant” snow because for some reason, people insist snow games are the best when in reality, snow games typically lead to the worst iteration of football.
UPDATED SUNDAY:The latest on Bills vs 49ers game-time weather conditions in Orchard Park
Oh sure, the scene is cool for NFL Films, but I’ll never understand why people would rather watch high-level athletes slipping and sliding and unable to perform anywhere near their peak, not to mention the fact that bad weather can often close the gap between the favorite (in this case the Bills) and the underdog (49ers). But hey, that’s just me.
Oh, and Josh Allen.
“That would be ideal, yeah,” Allen said when asked if he hopes Orchard Park is spared. “If there’s anybody that’s done it enough, it’s me. I feel like I’m very comfortable with whatever weather elements are thrown our way. And that’s just kind of the nature of the beast of playing here in Buffalo, you have to deal with elements like this.”
The uncertainty about weather adds a challenging layer because if Mother Nature does dump a ton of snow, game plans will need to be altered.
“We’ve been through it before, so we have some experience with it,” coach Sean McDermott said of having to be ready to pivot based on the weather. “We can’t control the weather. So I think it’s really just about how we respond to it.”
As for the 49ers’ lengthy injury list, the Bills had to prepare for players like QB Brock Purdy, DE Nick Bosa, OT Trent Williams and CB Deommodore Lenoir to play, but as it turns out, of that star-studded group, only Purdy is going to be out there.
“There’s some moving targets with who we’re expecting to play,” McDermott said. “We have to prepare for them to be as healthy as they’ve ever been, really, just because we don’t know. So that’s really how we’re approaching it.”
One thing does not change, though. The defending NFC champion 49ers are 5-6 and they need to get on a heater – which will be tough to do Sunday night in Buffalo – if they stand any chance of defending their crown because right now they’re in last place in the NFC West and sitting outside the NFC wild-card picture.
“We know what we’ve got ahead of us. We know exactly what that playoff situation is,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “But really all that matters is this week. When you do need to go on a run and put together a lot of wins to even think of that, then you better make sure you’re only thinking of one thing and that’s Buffalo.”
Sounds a lot like McDermott who preaches “one week at a time” as often as kindergarten teachers tell their students not to run in the halls.
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Brock Purdy
Statistically, this isn’t going to end up being one of Allen’s best seasons, at least based on the pace he’s currently at. However, this might be the best overall version we’ve seen of the seventh-year veteran.
“The Josh Allen experience with this magnitude … it’s been phenomenal,” said wide receiver Amari Cooper who’s new to this whole thing. “The league has stars, and he’s one of them. He’s just a tremendous talent, very skilled guy. You know, some guys are just made to play ball in the position that they play, and he’s definitely one of those guys. So it’s been very fun to watch.”
Allen began the season averaging a mundane 193.3 yards passing over the first six games, but in the last five – all victories, all of which have seen the Bills score at least 30 points – Allen is averaging 276.6. Against the 49ers, he’ll face a pass defense that ranks sixth at 193.5 yards allowed, one that rarely blitzes in order to blanket receivers with seven in coverage.
Purdy practiced Friday and coach Kyle Shanahan said he is going to play. Early in the week it was expected that he would play after sitting out the Green Bay game, but he was listed as a limited participant in practice Thursday. But Friday, he did enough to convince Shanahan he can go.
Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Mr. Irrelevant, has been anything but that since he shocked the league and became the 49ers’ starter midway through 2022 and has since led the 49ers to back-to-back NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl where they lost to the Chiefs. But this season has been a slight step back and in the 10 games he has played, he has only 11 TD passes compared to eight picks, though part of that had to do with not having Christian McCaffrey the first half of the year, and Brandon Aiyuk for only the first seven games.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ WR Amari Cooper: After missing two games with a wrist injury, Cooper returned for the Chiefs’ game and made two big catches, each of which led to Bills TDs. Now he’s had time to let the injury heal further, and he likely spent the bye week learning more of the playbook. He could be ready for his breakout game for Buffalo. He and the other Bills’ receivers will not have to face outstanding CB Deommodore Lenoir who will not play due to a knee injury.
▶ RT Spencer Brown: The expectation is that he’ll be back after missing the Chiefs game, and he’ll be confronted with his 2023 teammate, edge rusher Leonard Floyd. Floyd matched his career high for sacks in his lone season in Buffalo with 10.5 as he helped fill the void left by Von Miller. He parlayed that into a free agent deal with the 49ers, and after a slow start, he’s been a beast in the last two games with 11 pressures and 3.5 sacks. With Bosa out, Floyd is the best pass rusher the 49ers have.
▶ DE Greg Rousseau: Obviously, his pass rush is always important, but what might be even more important Sunday is his ability to set the edge in the run game, something Rousseau excels at. If the snow becomes prevalent, the 49ers will probably lean on McCaffrey and backup RB Jordan Mason on the ground and their offense runs outside the tackles 70% of the time, second-most in the league. The 49ers like to get their linemen out in space, and even though they have faced stacked boxes (at least eight defenders in the box) more than any team (32.3% of run plays), they still rank tied for fourth in the league in yards per carry (4.9).
▶ LB Dorian Williams: Even if Matt Milano plays, he’s probably going to be on a pitch count. Williams will get the bulk of snaps and the 49ers will try to exploit him in the pass game. Among 51 LBs who have played at least 220 coverage snaps, Pro Football Focus grades him 46th in coverage and his completions allowed per snap is dead last at 6.2. But as a run defender, Williams – who leads the Bills with 97 tackles – has been quite acceptable. Of the 52 LBs who have played at least 200 run snaps, PFF grades Williams 11th.
San Francisco 49ers who should impact the game
▶ RB Christian McCaffrey: It has been a rough return for the 2023 NFL offensive player of the year. After missing the first half of the season, he has played in the last three games but has averaged 93.7 yards from scrimmage which isn’t bad, but also isn’t up to his standard. Last year he averaged 126.5 yards per game and against a Bills’ defense that hasn’t been great against the run, McCaffrey, who does not have a touchdown, could be ready to ignite, especially if the weather dictates that the 49ers have to pound it on the ground.
▶ WR Jauan Jennings: In the absence of Aiyuk, Jennings has emerged as a legitimate threat. The fourth-year veteran had only 78 receptions in his first three seasons, but he already has 47 for 628 yards and four TDs in the first 11 games and his catch percentage is 73.4 with 19 contested catches and only two drops.
▶ S Ji’Ayir Brown: With Lenoir out, this is going to be a big night for Brown who will have to make up for that loss in the 49ers’ secondary as he helps CBs Isaac Yiadom and Renardo Green. The Bills should be able to get favorable matchups on those players, so Brown and fellow S Malik Mustapha are going to be on the hook, especially over the middle.
▶ LB Fred Warner: Coming off a rare poor game against the Packers, Warner is going to be fired up to make amends. The three-time All-Pro leads the 49ers with 84 tackles and he has four forced fumbles and two interceptions including a pick-six. He is considered one of the best coverage LBs in the league.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 23
The natural inclination would be to say the Bills will have the homefield advantage if the weather is lousy, which it very well might be. I would offer that no matter what they say on camera, the players don’t like playing in snow and cold, and that includes the Bills who have a roster where more than half of the players hail from warm weather states.
But yes, given that they live here and sometimes practice in the cold, the Bills are a little more used to this than the 49ers. I think it’s a small advantage for Buffalo, but it won’t be the determining factor. That will be the fact that the Bills at this stage are the better team, especially with the 49ers having a QB playing at less than 100% and missing three star players in Bosa, Lenoir and LT Trent Williams. The 49ers are a proud team but I think the Bills’ pursuit of the AFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC marches on.
Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, L, 20-23Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, W 23-20Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, W 34-10Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, W 31-10Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, W 30-27Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, W 30-20Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 30-21Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEKWeek 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social. Sign up for his Bills Blast newsletter here: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
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